And many banks have canceled already approved applications and offer to submit them again – with different rates and conditions. The requirements for borrowers are also being tightened, but there are still programs for preferential lending for new buildings and there is an opportunity to cheaply invest your money in real estate.
In this article, I will talk about the main concerns and what to do or not to do if your house is being built.
What will happen to new buildings and escrow accounts
What is the problem. Many equity holders fear that developers will not be able to finish building houses now, especially those with a deadline of three to four years. It is not yet clear whether the system of escrow accounts will be able to protect equity holders if the objects are not actually handed over.
What can happen. Deceived equity holders appeared before the introduction of escrow accounts, since the buyers’ money immediately went to the full disposal of the developer. People signed contracts and transferred money for apartments. There were cases when the houses were not completed, and the money was lost.
The idea of escrow accounts is quite simple: the buyer of an apartment does not transfer money to the developer, but puts it in the bank. This happens after the conclusion of the contract for participation in shared construction. The developer can use this money only after putting the house into operation – this is monitored by the bank. That is, the system of escrow accounts guarantees a refund if the shareholder has not received an apartment in the property.
Now there is talk to allow developers to open escrow accounts earlier, even before the house is put into operation. This is necessary, as the developers did not have enough working capital to complete the construction: all materials have risen in price.So what? 07/23/18
Partial disclosure of escrow accounts is two steps back. This makes life easier for the developer, but at the same time reduces the protection of equity holders. It turns out that the construction company still uses the money of equity holders before the object is commissioned. And a reasonable question: what will happen if the money of equity holders is not enough to complete the construction?
There is one more thing. In any case, money from escrow accounts is returned to equity holders at face value. No compensation for the rise in price of apartments or the percentage of inflation is not provided. There is simply no source of funds for such compensation. That is, if two years ago a shareholder invested 5 million rubles in an apartment under construction, now, when the developer has not handed over the house, the shareholder will receive back the same 5 million. At the same time, the apartment may already cost 7 million, and mortgage rates have doubled.
What to do. During a crisis, the authorities usually give concessions to builders: they are allowed to extend the deadline for commissioning a house. It’s probably better to be patient and get an apartment than depreciated money.
When buying a non-existent object, it is impossible to completely avoid risks. The state, having introduced a system of escrow accounts, took only the first step. The second step is quite complicated: it is necessary to prohibit equity participation and make real estate transactions only under a sale and purchase agreement.What to do? 04/29/20
Should you save money by buying a home ?
What is the problem. The State Duma proposed issuing preferential mortgages at 5% for mass new buildings. Also, the program of subsidizing mortgage interest rates for apartments in new buildings is still working. Is it worth it now to use these offers in order to save money in real estate, you need to consider in each case separately.
What can happen. Preferential mortgages for mass new buildings were limited to a loan in the amount of 3 million rubles. At the current key rate, budget spending on subsidies has risen sharply. Therefore, interest rates on preferential programs will be raised to 12% and the loan amount will be increased.So what? 24.03.2
What to do. With any increase in the lending rate, the model of behavior of a potential borrower should be as follows: do not buy anything and do not take a loan if there is no need and readiness. Need – the need right now to improve living conditions. Willingness – there is a suitable apartment and the ability to live on the money that will remain after the monthly loan payment. I recommend calculating this balance, writing down the final number on a piece of paper, putting it in front of you and asking: “Can I live on this money every month for five years?”
To understand whether real estate is worth using as a way to save money, one must evaluate the potential increase in the price of an apartment, liquidity, operating costs, tax features and the cost of a loan. All these calculations are for professionals. An ordinary person will not defeat inflation, he will inevitably fall into the captivity of numbers and get confused.
In other words, if you want to buy another apartment and have money, buy it, but no matter how you calculate the profitability, you will still be upset. Not everyone can effectively resell or rent it, there is a lot of luck here. Most likely, it will just be another apartment.
Another question is if the family has, for example, the need to provide housing for children. Then it’s just a promising improvement in living conditions, the economy is in the background here.
Before the 2008 crisis, borrowers took apartments on credit, including in dollars. Someone bought for themselves, someone for the purpose of investing, someone mortgaged their apartment for business projects. Who took for himself, he with difficulty, but managed. The other two categories are in default. The real estate in the price in dollars has fallen, business development has stopped. The conclusion is not to take in the hope of growth: it may not happen.
How will the requirements of banks for borrowers change and who will be given a mortgage
What is the problem. Many will lose their jobs, some employers will probably switch to paying salaries according to gray and black schemes. All this will change the methods of assessing the solvency of borrowers.
What can happen. It will not always be logical to tighten the requirements, since banks themselves do not yet understand which categories of borrowers will get through the crisis better. Now large companies are leaving Russia, people are losing their jobs, there is no understanding who will have a stable income.
During the pandemic, banks considered it risky to issue loans to doctors, workers in the tourism industry and catering. Perhaps now the same attitude will be towards employees of foreign companies and their subsidiaries. But usually these approaches are short-term.
Scoring, that is, a method of automatically assessing a borrower, is likely to be reconfigured in many banks. Most likely, there will be more “manual” intervention after scoring. Applications may take longer to process and the number of rejections will increase.
What to do. After the crises of 2008 and 2015, banks gave priority to borrowers from the public sector. This is a category with a small but official and stable income. If you plan to take out a mortgage, it is worth considering when looking for a job.Community 09.03.22
What is the difference between the crises of 2008, 2014 and 2022 for the mortgage market and real estate
What is the problem. Much has changed since the crises of 2008 and 2015. Not the fact that the process will develop according to the old scenarios.
Let me tell you what the benefits are. At the time of the crisis, there are preferential mortgage lending programs, loan holidays, and banks’ own restructuring programs. There is no foreign currency mortgage, that is, borrowers are not faced with a sharp increase in monthly payments on existing loans. The market is not oversaturated with real estate, which means that prices were not inflated before the crisis.
There are also disadvantages. On February 28, 2022, the Bank of Russia increased the key rate to 20% and provoked a panic. The possibilities of some banks have decreased, they have introduced de facto prohibitive mortgage rates.
What can happen. Now banks, if they give mortgages, add at least three percentage points to the key rate. Therefore, there is no need to wait for the mortgage rate to fall until the key rate drops.
The work of development institutions should now resemble islands of stability, but they act like commercial organizations that put profit first. For example, in 2008, the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending – AHML – bought out loans from small banks that could not keep loans on their balance sheets. This helped the banks, they continued to issue loans. That is, while commercial banks dealt with their foreign currency mortgages, AHML worked, as it were , in antiphase. When everyone grew, AHML lost market share, and when the decline began, the agency began to fill in the gaps. This is the work of the Mortgage Lending Development Institute.
Now, instead of AHML, Dom-rf has become a development institution with its subsidiary bank, which operates like an ordinary commercial bank.
What to do. Mortgage has become a familiar tool for the state to solve commercial, social and economic problems, so no one will leave it. But due to the increase in rates, the monthly issue will decrease by 3-5 times, the sellers will no longer have the opportunity to greatly raise the prices of apartments – there will be fewer buyers.Community 02/18/22
I do not undertake to predict what will happen in real estate segments and regions. Commercial mechanisms do not always work here. For example, developers can complete a troubled house with the help of regional authorities, which will provide preferences to a new developer who has gone bankrupt.
It is possible that from autumn mortgage rates will begin to gradually decline. All credit products will certainly be revived and refinancing will arise again, but not immediately. Over the next year, as the economy recovers, the market will return to growth. It will be stimulated by more affordable loans, restoration of construction sites, and income growth.